Cost estimates

Projecting the financial and other resources required to execute a project within a stated scope and timetable is known as the cost estimate. Cost estimates that are accurate and trustworthy are critical for policy formation, decision-making, and effective delivery.

Producing reliable, accurate, and transparent cost estimates is critical to ensuring world-class project delivery. The approach performance structure is organized in an eight-step cycle. The requirements guide goes over the intended process and the checks that practitioners must undertake at each step in further detail.

Step 1: Create A Brief

Developing a complete project brief and outlining clear objectives at the start and beginning of each stage gate cycle is a crucial step in generating a reliable cost estimate. In addition, the project summary should provide a clear understanding of the cost estimate’s context and requirements.

 The attention should shift to choosing a qualified technical team to develop the cost estimate using the information gleaned from the project brief. Specific attention and additional investment should be considered for more complicated projects to guarantee the proper specializations (e.g. tunnels, bridges, high-speed rail, etc.) and experience are available at the right moment of the project.

The cost estimate should not be done in isolation but as part of a collaborative team effort in which design and delivery stakeholders contribute timely feedback.

The project leader should agree on a clear cost estimate review and assurance points using a review panel, independent assurance, or ‘critical friend’ approach. In addition, the review panel, independent validation, or ‘critical friend’ approach should include diverse perspectives and expertise tailored to the project’s needs.

Step 2: Collect Information and Evidence

Create a standardized structure. All cost estimations should use a consistent “Level 0” cost breakdown structure. Comparisons, benchmarking, and uniform terminology at the lowest common denominator across projects are all aided by a shared high-level breakdown.

“Level 0” Cost Breakdown Structure

• Escalation
• Land and property
• Admin
• Indirect costs
• Direct costs

A sound foundation of evidence supported by high-quality data is required to build a reliable and robust cost estimate. The less reliable the facts and data, the more uncertainty there will be in a cost estimate. The data’s quality and maturity should grow with time. Throughout the project lifespan, the cost estimate team must examine the underlying data, incorporating new information and any lessons gained as the project progresses.

When putting together a cost estimate, one of the most important things to do is document your assumptions. As the cost estimate is established, assumptions should be conveyed explicitly to all project stakeholders (SRO, Project Director, and Project Team). This guarantees that the cost estimate’s context is explicit, agreed upon, and accurately interpreted by the cost estimating team by the project’s goals.

Step 3: Decide On a Cost Estimation Method

Cost estimating can be done in a variety of ways. Solid facts must back up the methodology chosen. As the cost estimate evolves and the project moves through the stages, the cost estimate technique should be examined and reflected on. Combining and employing several strategies is rather usual.

There are two typical ways to cost estimation (cost and risk estimation):

• Deterministic 
• Probabilistic 

Cost estimating methods include:

• Parametric cost estimating 
• First-principles (bottom-up) cost estimating
• Analogy cost estimating 
• Expert opinion

Step 4: Determine The Base Estimate, The Uncertainty, The Risk, And The Opportunity

The base cost estimate computes the predicted cost based on the available information, assumptions made, and chosen method. Next, prepare an Anticipated Final Cost and a range of probable values that reflect the project’s level of risk and uncertainty.

Step 5: Create A Cost Estimate Report 

The cost estimating team must compile the various calculations done until step 4 into a logical and consistent report to aid project decision-making. Then, the cost estimate is constructed to eliminate uncertainty, and priority regions are recommended.

 Step 6: Check and Double-Check Everything

Reviewing and confirming cost estimates is a standard procedure for increasing accuracy and confidence. Based on the influence the cost estimate will have on decision-making and the risk of a calculation error, choose the appropriate type of review and level of assurance. If an error is found, go back to Step 4.

Step 7: Approval of The Project’s Leadership

The goal of the sign-off procedure is to provide project leadership with an opportunity to clarify and question the cost estimate data, as well as to comprehend and formally acknowledge their ownership of the data so that they may rely on its insights when regulating the project. In preparation for stage-gate (SG) review and approval, ensure the Project Director and Senior Responsible Owner (SRO) understand the maturity of the cost estimate and accept ownership.

Step 8: Use The Cost Estimate to Help You Make a Decision

Present the cost estimate as a range to account for the project’s inherent risk and uncertainty. As the project proceeds, it is advised that the technique outlined below be actively used and evaluated to assist in setting and challenging the proper budget and support essential choices to keep the project on track for successful completion.

Cost Estimation’s Fundamental Principles

The Difficulties of Cost Estimation

Because cost estimation is merely a forecast of a project’s costs, there is still some uncertainty when calculating it. Because the project’s cost isn’t complete until you finish it and can quantify the money spent on resources, this uncertainty develops.

Calculating a cost estimate for a unique or big project might be difficult since the specific expenses may be more difficult to ascertain precisely. Working with your team and taking the proper strategy when estimating project costs might help you avoid some of these issues.

A Great Project Cost Estimate

 You can use several criteria to determine how useful a project cost estimate is, including:

• Reliability  A project cost estimate is frequently based on facts or experience. When calculating expenses, you can improve the trustworthiness of your estimate by using expert judgment and historical data.
• Precision A cost estimate for a project is only useful if it is accurate. Select the most appropriate estimating technique, revise estimates during the project, and plan for unforeseen expenditures in your estimate to attain accuracy.
• Verification Make sure the mathematical processes utilized to calculate a project cost estimate are correct. You can double-check these calculations using the estimate’s documentation.
• Risk Detection In project cost estimates, you can identify and plan for hazards. To guarantee that there is enough money in the budget to compensate for these risks, management frequently overestimates them.
• Documentation: Keeping track of the assumptions used in an estimate is critical. Documentation can assist others in understanding the reasoning for an estimate and avoid misconceptions.

Final Thoughts

Producing reliable, accurate, and transparent cost estimates is critical to ensuring world-class project delivery. To produce accurate cost estimates, it is vital to carefully implement the process while considering the principles of cost estimation.